I’m moving my election integrity blog entries to a new site over at https://digitalpollwatchers.org. I plan on keeping my previous posts up on this site as well in order to not break any existing links to the content, but I’m going to replicate the posts on the new site as well. -Jon
Second time’s the charm! See here for my (corrected) first attempt. My apologies for the coding error in my first effort to compute the 2020 CSV Estimates. Per a question that I received I took a look at the difference between the number of voters that the VA department of elections (“ELECT”) says participated in …
Read more “Distribution of VHL Entries as compared to CSV and Turnout statistics”
Computed below is the number of duplicated voter records in each locality as of the 11/06/21 VA Registered Voter List (RVL). The computation is based on performing an exact match of LAST_NAME, DOB and ADDRESS fields between records in the file. Note: If the combination of the name “Jane Smith”, with DOB “1/1/1980”, at “12345 …
Read more “Number of duplicated voter records in each VA locality”
MAJOR CORRECTION (2022-07-17): The below analysis incorrectly computed the CSV totals for each of the 3 counties. I had an indexing error into my CSV file list and erroneously computed the 2020 totals from the CSV’s. I have since updated and recomputed all of the VHL and CSV results, and have additionally added a check …
Read more “Distribution of VHL Entries for selected VA Localities”
Many election integrity investigators are looking through registration records and trying to find suspicious registrations based on the number of records attributed to a specific address as an initial way of identifying records of interest and of need of further scrutiny. This can often produce false positives for things like nursing homes, college dormitories, etc. …
Read more “Nationwide Nursing Home, Hospice Care and Assisted Living Facilities listing”
I finally had some time to put this together. For additional background information, see here, here and here. As a reminder and summary, according to the published methods in the USAID funded National Academy of Sciences paper (here) that I based this work off of, an ideal “fair” election should look like one or two …
During the 2021 election I archived multiple versions of the Statewide Daily Absentee List (DAL) files as produced by the VA Department of Elections (ELECT). As the name implies, the DAL files are a daily produced official product from ELECT that accumulates data representing the state of absentee votes over the course of the election. …
Read more “Vanishing Voter ID’s in sequential 2021 DAL files”
Presented 2022-04-14 at Patriot Pub in Hamilton VA. Note that I mis-quoted the total registration error number off the slide deck during the voice track of my presentation. The slides are correct … my eyes and memory just suck sometimes! I said ~850K. The actual number is ~380K. Video can be found here: https://www.patriotpuballiance.com
Previously I wrote about finding In-Person Early Vote records inserted into the Daily Absentee List (DAL) records after the close of early voting in VA in 2021. Well, theres been quite a bit of activity since then and I have somme updates to share. I originally discovered this issue and began digging into it around …
A while back I posted about the fact that the official turnout numbers on the VA Dept of Elections (“ELECT”) website we’re incorrect. ELECT’s webpage showed the turnout for the 2020 election was 81.48%, when their own stats on the same page clearly show the results should be 75.08%. I first published this discrepancy on …