VA 2020 Election Analysis Report (v5)

Adding on to my previous report (old version is here). Fixed a few typos and formatting issues. Added some discussion about the fact that the VA DOE did correct the turnout statistic error I found, but did not make any sort of statement or explanation as to why the error was there in the first …

Comparison of 2020 and 2021 Absentee Breakouts in VA

I got asked a question earlier this evening as to how the current 2021 VA election early vote/absentee data was shaping up in comparison to the 2020, so I did some quick processing and plotting of the Daily Absentee List (DAL) from just after the 2020 election (11-09-2020), and the current DAL as of today …

More Details on “Ideal” Fingerprint Computations

Per request by a reviewer of my most recent election irregularities report in VA (here), here’s a little more technical detail as to how the “ideal” model is computed in accordance with the original 2012 National Academy of Sciences paper that I based this work off of. The generalized summary in my report for VA …

VA 2020 Election Analysis Report

Finally. This has been a long time in the making, but here is my summarized report on the most significant VA 2020 General Election irregularities that I’ve discovered. All of this information is presented in detail in previous posts on this site, as well as cataloging many other issues, but I’ve collected the major points …

NH 2020 Election Fingerprint

Background: The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published a paper in 2012 titled “Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities.” [1]  The paper asked the question, “How can it be distinguished whether an election outcome represents the will of the people or the will of the counters?” The study reviewed the results from elections in …

Well, isn’t that interesting …

USAID pulled two of their recent publications sometime after Nov 8 2020 on election integrity from their website. Specifically two publications that discuss election integrity forensics, including referencing the same National Academy of sciences paper that describes the Election Fingerprinting process that I’ve been using as a basis for my work. Luckily … there’s the …

Revisiting the VA 2020 Election Fingerprints: “Unmixing” the Virtual Absentee Precinct Data

After getting a pointer to the higher fidelity per-ward WI data and redoing that analysis (here), which was not only able to produce the election fingerprints but also a statistical model for each county that could identify statistically outlying wards for further scrutiny, I wanted to go back to the VA data and see if …

stickers with i voted inscription and flag of usa

Mike Lindell’s Cyber Symposium – Day 1

Yes. I’ve been watching the Mike Lindell cyber symposium. I was invited to attend (thank you again to Amanda Freeman Chase), but due to timing, my day job, and my understanding of the event format … I thought I could be more effective watching from home with the ability multi-task and to research things I …

stickers with i voted inscription and flag of usa

Vote Discrepancy in VA 2020 Voting data

Note: As of Update 2021-08-13 (see below) the discrepancy is now 382176 Votes. This needs to be explained. I hope this is just a mistake on my part or it can be attributed to a documented clerical or reporting error. I’ve gone over this a number of times now and triple checked my data sources …

New WI 2020 Election Fingerprints, rev 2.0

Shortly after posting some updated WI data analysis (here) I got pointed to an even better set of data to use for generating the fingerprints. This updated dataset uses the registration numbers as of Nov 3 and the per ward vote tallies provided on the https://elections.wi.gov/ site. I also made some code modifications in order …