(Another) Interesting View of VA 2020 Election Data

In answering some questions and messages I’ve been getting on my election analysis work, I took a minute and simply plotted the log-log plot of all of the absolute vote counts for Biden Vs. Trump for all precincts in the state. Real physical precincts are colored blue. Central absentee counting precincts are colored red. The Read more about (Another) Interesting View of VA 2020 Election Data[…]

A Midnight Spike in VA, and generation of Election Fingerprints over time.

BLUF: Discovered 55,196 vote spike in Alexandria City absentee ballots with 0 (… as in … zilch, zip, nada) for Trump or Jorgensen sometime between 11:30pm 11/3/2020 and 01:00am 11/4/2020. Generated time series of VA per county election fingerprints, and cumulative vote counts. Data sources: VA Dept of Elections voter registration data by locality file, Read more about A Midnight Spike in VA, and generation of Election Fingerprints over time.[…]

Excess Absentee Votes in VA

See also my previous election fingerprint blog posts here, and here. There is another, related, discrepancy in the Daily Absentee List data that I document here. Originally Posted 2020-12-01 10:58:00 (Multiple Updates) After computing the VA election fingerprints which clearly indicate that more investigation is required into the 2020 VA vote data, I took a Read more about Excess Absentee Votes in VA[…]

HART Voting Machines in PWC, VA

Discovered today that my county PWC, VA uses the HART voting machine systems and I have been doing a little research. Right now I’m just seeing what I can find and verify and collecting them on this page. Biggest Find: I found a very recent paper (2019) discussing and demonstrating methods by which to hack Read more about HART Voting Machines in PWC, VA[…]

VA Senate Timeseries Election Data Plot

Computing the VA 2020 Senate Election data time series from the NYT Edison data feed. This is direct from the NYT data feed without any processing. source: https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/virginia/senate.json

VA Timeseries Election Data Plot

Computing the VA 2020 Presidential Election data time series from the NYT Edison data feed. This is direct from the NYT data feed without any processing. source: https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/virginia/president.json

Computing the VA 2020 Daily Absentee Ballot List Rejection Rate and Other Stats

Adding onto the work I’ve already done looking at the VA Daily Absentee List I wanted to compute the rejection rate for absentee ballots and some other basic statistics just from the Daily Absentee Ballot List (DAL) produced by VA Dept of Elections. (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/candidatepac-info/client-services/) Keep in mind I’ve already been able to show: There were Read more about Computing the VA 2020 Daily Absentee Ballot List Rejection Rate and Other Stats[…]

Another VA Daily Absentee List Discrepancy

Looking further into the VA Daily Absentee List there were 166 “valid” counted absentee ballots that had the application receipt date greater than the ballot receipt date, and 1,797,901 ballots where the application and ballot receipt dates were equal. An absentee application needs to be received and validated, then an absentee ballot needs to be Read more about Another VA Daily Absentee List Discrepancy[…]

VA Election Changelog Data

My first pass at looking at the data was to simply plot the cumulative changes for Biden and Trump. Blue is Biden, red is Trump below. This is just simply summing the non-NaN entries in the ‘TotalVotes’ column associated with when the ‘BallotName’ column contains either ‘Trump’ or ‘Biden’. More to come. Just a cursory Read more about VA Election Changelog Data[…]

Election Fingerprints Latest Results

Updated 11/29/20 See also my post on “excess” absentee votes in VA here. I’m going to keep my previous blog page Statistical Detection of Election Irregularities:2020 updated with the Nitty-Gritty details of processing these fingerprints. This page I’m just going to post the latest results that I have for each state, and let the data Read more about Election Fingerprints Latest Results[…]